Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS63 KSGF 101955
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures will occur across the area through
  much of this coming week into next weekend.

- Scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will move
  across the region late Tuesday night and mainly through the
  day on Wednesday.

- Monitoring another potential storm system in the 8-14 day
  range with the CPC forecasting a slight risk for heavy
  precipitation. Uncertainty remains high with the system
  including exact timing and rainfall amounts for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

An upper level low is moving to the northeast into the Great
Lakes region this afternoon. Sunny skies and seasonable warm
conditions are occuring across the area southwest of the
trough. Temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to the
lower 70s this afternoon and will continue to warm a few more
degrees this afternoon. Westerly winds are also occurring this
afternoon with gusts up to around 20mph remaining possible at
times the rest of this afternoon.

Winds will become light this evening when the sun begins to set.
Lows tonight into Monday morning will cool to around the 40
degree mark. There could be some patchy ground fog mainly in
river valleys, but not expecting widespread dense fog.

Sunny skies and above normal temperatures will occur again on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 60s to near 70 degrees
again. Winds will be light on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast out of the
northern Plains Monday night and will send a weak front south
into the area Monday night into Tuesday. A dry air mass will be
in place across the region so no rain will occur with the front.
Another upper level trough will move onto the west Coast Monday
night and will move east into the Plains by Tuesday night. With
the upper level trough moving east towards the plains the
front that moves into the area on Monday night will stall across
the area on Tuesday from the northwest to southeast likely
across the middle of the area. Highs will range from the upper
50s across central Missouri on the cooler side of the front to
the lower 70s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri on the warm side of the front on Tuesday
afternoon.

The upper level trough and an associated front will move east
across the central Plains Tuesday night and through the region
on Wednesday. Some moisture will start to return to the area
right ahead of the front. There will also be some weak MUCAPE
(up to 100-200J/kg) that develops across portions of the
western portions of the area with this system. Scattered
showers are expected to develop along and ahead the front late
Tuesday night and mainly through the day on Wednesday. There
may be just enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder to
develop but overall the thunder potential will be low with
mainly showers occurring with this system. Instability and
moisture will weaken even more to the east so rainfall amounts
will likely range from a few hundredths across south central
Missouri to around one quarter of an inch across extreme
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri with these scattered
showers.

Highs will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s Wednesday
and Thursday. An upper level ridge will then build back over the
region late this week into next weekend. highs will warm back
into the middle to upper 60s with some locations warming into
the lower 70s possible next weekend.

The ensemble model members then indicate another upper level
trough will move onto the west Coast next weekend and will move
towards the region late next weekend into early the following
week. This system will bring additional rain chances to the
region, however there is still quite a spread between the model
members on the track, timing, and structure of the system so
confidence on rainfall amounts, chances, and timing is still
low for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through much of
the TAF period from this afternoon through the day on Monday.
There is a low chance for some patchy ground fog early Monday
morning, but widespread dense fog is not expected at this time.
Westerly winds around 10kt will continuing across the area this
afternoon then winds will become light this evening into
Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise