Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

189
FXUS63 KSGF 301732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Round 2 of severe weather (Enhanced Risk 3 of 5) will occur
  this afternoon/evening for areas mostly east of Highway 63.
  All severe hazards are possible including large hail up to
  tennis balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a tornado or
  two.

- Behind the cold front, cooler and breezy into Monday.
  Temperatures drop into the 30s on Monday night, introducing a
  frost risk, especially in the eastern Ozarks.

- High confidence in southeast wind gusts around 25 to 35 mph
  on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the potential for higher
  gusts.

- Unsettled weather ahead from mid-week through late week into next
  weekend. Confidence is increasing in severe thunderstorms,
  with the highest threat on Wednesday. Additionally, heavy
  rainfall and flooding become a concern.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today:

The latest trends continue to support afternoon redevelopment,
roughly between 12 to 3 PM across portions of south central MO.
This can be visualized as an area along and southeast of a
slowly advancing cold front this morning. This area is
highlighted in the SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5)
Severe Weather Outlook today. Recent surface analysis depicts
the surface front running parallel to Interstate 44, roughly
from Branson to Rolla. The advancement of this cold front
through late morning into the early afternoon remains a key
component to the afternoon redevelopment in the area as
shortwave energy lifts through the region. Additionally, an
existing cold pool/outflow boundary continues to meander slowly
through south central MO this morning. As this outflow boundary
exits to the east, gradual destabilization is expected to occur
in its wake. This is depicted in the latest observations,
showing middle 60 dewpoints advecting north out of northern
Arkansas. Visible satellite imagery depicts an area of clearing
overlapping south central MO, that will further aid in daytime
heating.

Assuming south central MO is able to efficiently destabilize
ahead of the cold front, the environment is progged to be
favorable for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent RAP
analysis suggest upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by early to
mid afternoon, in the vicinity of 45 to 55 knots of 0-6km bulk
shear. Thus, supporting rapid updraft development of a few
supercells. This remains the most likely storm mode after
initial convective initiation, before potentially getting messy
with storm interactions and/or upscale growth. Given the more
favorable scenario of semi-discrete cells in the area, the
primary hazard remains large hail, with a lower risk for
damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado.

Taking a closer at hazards, large hail remains the greatest
concern. RAP suggests steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km in
the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg of CAPE through the hail growth
zone (-10 to -30 C). The large hail parameter values remain on
track to be anywhere from 8 to 14, with research suggesting that
this leads to maximum hail size of tennis balls or larger. As
for damaging winds, they remain a plausible hazard, especially
if thunderstorms are able to congeal into a cluster or segments.
Meanwhile, forecast soundings continue to depict unidirectional
shear to the NE, supporting elongated and relatively straight
hodographs. Low- level shear is expected to remain rather modest
around 15 to 20 knots, as is storm- relative helicity in the
same layer below 100 m2/s2. Additionally, surface winds are
expected to be southwesterly. These point to a lower tornado
risk and more of a large hail risk with any supercell.

To bring everything together, the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms occurs in small window this afternoon into
the early evening, generally between 2 to 6 PM. This leaves a 2
to 4 hour window for severe potential over south central MO.
Activity quickly exits to the south and east after 6 PM. The
primary hazard is large hail up to tennis balls, with lower
confidence in damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph or an isolated
tornado. Small changes in the mesoscale, such as a quicker
moving cold front could potentially limit the extent of
thunderstorm development in this area still. Monitor for
additional updates to the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025


Round 1 of severe weather (Slight Risk) wrapping up this morning:

Thunderstorm complex is quickly moving its way through west
Missouri as of 230 AM. By the time this AFD is out, the leading
line will likely be exiting the Springfield area, dissipating as
it moves northeast. Damaging wind gusts are occurring with this
line, especially with the WNW-ESE oriented band moving NNE into
west-Missouri. In fact, a 79 mph wind gust was reported by the
Joplin ASOS. Otherwise, the southeast extent of the complex is
exhibiting a weakening trend as the leading line becomes more
cellular, advecting back under an outflow dominant cold pool.
Main limiting factor with that seems to be limited instability,
and potentially uniform shear above the 1 km layer. Latest VAD
at SGF depicts 50 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, with winds above 1
km uniform through 10 km. In other words, all the shear is
within the 0-1 km layer, with effectively no shear in the 1-6
km layer. It comes to no surprise, then, that the part of the
complex putting down severe winds is with the line completely
perpendicular to the NNE oriented 0-1 km shear vectors (and by
transitive property, the 0-3 km shear vectors). Some small
couplets have been observed with this line segment, which points
to a continued low threat for brief tornadoes within the line
segment, but RAP soundings depicting less than 25 J/kg of 0-3 km
CAPE may limit any effective torgen. Expectation is for the
complex to continue to weaken as it treks eastward, though with
just sufficient amount of MUCAPE and 0-3 km shear, damaging
winds are still possible with any line segments that get going
within the complex. Based on radar and near-term model trends,
much, if not all, of the complex should be dissipated by 7 AM.


Round 2 of severe weather (Enhanced Risk) this afternoon:

Main takeaway for today`s severe threat is that model trends,
along with the SPC outlook, has pushed the severe risk levels
further east, aligning more with the "Wash Out" scenarios
discussed in the previous AFDs. The main difference is that the
"Wash Out" is less derived from the thunderstorm complex moving
through the entire area (latest radar trends suggests a bit
earlier dissipation), and more with a slight acceleration of the
surface cold front. CAMs are in agreement that the front will
setup parallel, but southeast of, I-44 this afternoon. Mainly
from a line from Salem to Cassville. This lines up with the
boundary of SPC`s Slight (2 of 5) Risk. The Enhanced (3 of 5)
Risk is then a bit SE, including Shannon, Howell, and Oregon
counties.

While the most likely area of initiation has shifted SE from
previous forecasts (best area is along and SE of the Salem to
Cassville line), the expected storm mode/evolution and maximum
hazards remain unchanged, save for a slightly lower tornado
risk. The environment will be characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE with 45-55 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Much of the shear is
unidirectional to the NE, creating elongated and relatively
straight hodographs. Low-level shear is rather modest in the
15-20 kt range, with HREF mean storm-relative helicity in the
same layer below 100 m2/s2. Additionally, surface winds are
expected to be southwesterly. These point to a lower tornado
risk and more of a large to significant hail risk with any
supercell. RAP outputting steep mid-level lapse rates at 7-8
C/km within the good amount of CAPE/Shear is leading to large
hail parameter values at 8-14. Research shows that this leads to
maximum hail size of tennis balls or larger. 06Z HRRR model
soundings in the Shannon/Howell/Oregon county region pulls one
analog of 3 inch hail from an event in Louisiana, with 123 other
loose matches, 91% of them being significant. This all increases
confidence that large hail will be the main threat. Damaging
winds up to 70 mph will still be possible, especially if storms
congeal into a line early. And a tornado or two still cannot be
ruled out with any storms that experience favorable
interactions.

The best timeframe for initiation of these storms looks to be in
the 2-4 PM timeframe, with the storms clearing out to the east
by 5-7 PM. This leaves a short 3-5 hour window for storms within
our forecast area.

The cold front will then clear through the entire area, bringing
low temperatures down into the middle to upper 30s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Lots of weather expected next week. Actually very little has
changed with this extended forecast, with the main adjustments
being a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather along and west
of I-49 Tuesday evening and night. Then, increasing confidence
in multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms Wednesday onward,
with higher total rain amounts through the end of the week.
Let`s break it down:


Frost risk Monday night across the eastern Ozarks:

Behind the cold front on Monday, temperatures cool back
into the seasonal range, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across
most of the region with areas near/along the Missouri/Arkansas
border reaching low 60s.

Overnight into Tuesday, lows dip into the 30s, introducing the
potential of frost and/or a freeze scenario. NBM deterministic
currently progs lows around 40 degrees in areas along and west of
Hwy 65, with temperatures decreasing into the mid-30s through the
eastern Ozarks. Areas along the spine of the Ozark and Salem
Plateaus have the best chances of seeing frost-supporting
conditions, with a 60-90% chance of temperatures below 37 degrees.
SREF guidance supports this, with SREF ribbons holding central
Missouri between the 36 and 32 degree contours. However, a hard
freeze seems unlikely in most areas, with less than a 15% chance of
temps reaching 32 degrees or lower.

The exception to this is a small bullseye in and around Dent County,
where northeasterly surface flow would dam cold air along the
northern edge of the higher terrain where the St. Francois meets the
plateau. Mid-range models keep the window of northeasterly flow
short and confined to the boundary layer, which would decrease the
amount of cold air advection. On the other hand, guidance hints at a
brief and weak mesohigh feature floating east across the area and
light winds under clearing skies support a good radiational cooling
setup, both of which would favor the cooler end of guidance,
especially in the areas furthest east. MRCC`s Last Spring Freeze
Date guidance shows the last spring freeze dates in our area between
April 5-14, so this would be climatologically on track as well.

Regardless, confidence is high in the eastern Ozarks and the spine
of the plateau reaching between 32-37 degrees, with rapid decrease
in frost risk with westward extent and decreased elevation.
Additionally, it`s well known that the variable terrain in those
areas often result in localized patches of temperatures several
degrees below surrounding areas. We will begin issuing frost and
freeze headlines on April 1, which is conveniently Tuesday morning.
Ergo, a Frost Advisory may be issued in subsequent forecast packages.


Breezy winds Tuesday and Tuesday night:

As deep synoptic ridging builds across the eastern half of the US
through the day Tuesday, southwesterly flow advects warm air and
moisture back into the area along the low-level jet, warming us back
into the upper 70s and near 80 F by Wednesday. Meanwhile, a
deep upper-level trough pushes across the intermountain west.
The pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains through the
day Tuesday, and winds will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain gusty into
the overnight hours as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens.
Our position along the eastern edge of the strongest pressure
gradient will keep the strongest synoptic winds in the central
Plains, and the area with strongest winds will be areas furthest
west. The "most likely" wind forecast range is just below Wind
Advisory criteria, but changes in the strength of the low, how
fast it ejects off the Rockies, and its path could be just
enough to bump them over the edge.


Severe threat Tuesday night:

50-80% chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday
evening and night as a strong jet streak pushes into the central
Plains, and the surface low pressure system pushes east-
northeastward. As discussed above, the surface mass response
will bring gusty southerly winds. These will quickly advect in
60-65 F dewpoints, increasing instability to 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE (according to global models, so more is likely as we
close in on the time). As such, global models depict storms
developing along a dryline in east-central KS, which will move
eastward into Tuesday evening/night. Given the instability, and
increasing deep-layer shear thanks to the strong jet nosing in,
severe weather is possible. Currently, the SPC has a Marginal (1
of 5) Risk along and west of I-49. This will be further
evaluated as we get closer to the event, but it seems likely
this is for the dissipation phase of the storms from east KS as
they move into our area and escape better synoptic forcing.


Severe threat Wednesday:

The trough over the Rockies is poised to push its first shortwave
into the northern Plains Tuesday night. A moisture plume pushes into
southern California Tuesday evening while a broad, moist warm sector
simultaneously builds into the Missouri River Valley ahead of the
shortwave. The past few runs of GFS IVT guidance has been
consistently depicting the moisture plume out west overcoming the
Mexican Plateau and linking up to reinforce the already impressive
moisture return from the Gulf pushing across the Plains. With
temperatures in the 70s and dew points potentially as high as mid-
60s, a severe setup seems ripe with this system as well. However,
the cold front associated with the low pressure center to our north
may make its way through the area before storms would initiate,
which would confine the severe threat to our far eastern counties
and keep the best chances of severe further southeast into the
Tennessee Valley.

Despite several different factors that compound the uncertainty
associated with the severe risk to our area on Wednesday, it is a
classic springtime severe weather setup, with many similarities to
the recent March 14 event. SPC has a 15% Day 5 severe weather risk
for nearly the entire warm sector (equivalent to a Slight Risk, or
level 2/5 threat) and a 30% severe weather risk (equivalent to an
Enhanced Risk, or a level 3/5 threat) that barely clips our
southeasternmost counties. Details, including potential hazard types
and exact impacts to the Ozarks, will become more clear in the
coming days.


Hydro and potential severe threats Wednesday through Saturday:

Ensembles are coming into agreement that after Wednesday,
uniform southwesterly flow will setup up over our area with the
cold front associated with the Wednesday system becoming stationary
just to our south. Moisture return from the tropics just keeps
coming around the western side of a persistent Bermuda high, and
with a stalled stationary front, southwesterly flow overtop of,
and parallel to the front, and some similarities to Maddox
flash flood patterns appearing in global models and ensembles, a
flooding threat becomes apparent for at least some portions of
our CWA. In fact, WPC is quite confident in heavy rain and an
associated flooding threat as they have issued a Day 5 Moderate
(3 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for areas east of us. The
Slight and Marginal Risks clip our eastern counties. With the
stationary front currently looking to stall south of us, the
heaviest rainfall would stay south and east of our area with it.
However, this threat will need to be monitored closely in
coming forecast updates, as the location of the stationary front
stall- out will not need to shift north very much to create a
flash flooding event in the eastern Ozarks.

Regardless of a potential flooding threat evolving, confidence
is increasing in it being quite wet across the area Wednesday
through Sunday. Notably, PoPs are already at 70-90% Friday
night. Our current total rainfall amount forecast for Wednesday
through Saturday is 2 to 6 inches with the higher amounts,
understandably, to the south. Some severe threat could come with
these rounds of rain as the CSU Machine Learning models depict
our area in a slight risk area, but with they current forecast
synoptic layout, any severe threat would be elevated and
isolated.

Lastly, with a uniform flow pattern, high temperatures will stay
consistently in the 60s to lower 70s through the Wednesday to
Saturday period with lows in the 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A system continues to move through the area with additional low
chances for showers and thunderstorms at KSGF and KBBG through
the early afternoon. However, confidence in impacts at these
sites remains too low to depict in the TAFs at this time. MVFR
to IFR flight conditions behind the frontal passage, with
ceilings around 500 to 1500 feet. Brief reductions in
visibilities have also been noted with some cold air advection
fog just behind the front. Flight conditions gradually improve
to VFR through the early evening. Winds turn out of the north to
northwest behind the frontal passage at 8 to 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Perez
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Perez